Ukusukela oko kwaqala ubhubhane, ishishini lorhwebo kunye neshishini lezothutho bezisoloko ziphazamisekile. Kwiminyaka emibini eyadlulayo, imithwalo yolwandle yanda kakhulu, kwaye ngoku ibonakala ngathi iwela “kwixabiso eliqhelekileyo” leminyaka emibini eyadlulayo, kodwa ngaba imakethi ingabuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo?
Idatha
Uhlelo lwamva nje lwezikhongozeli ezine ezinkulu emhlabeni luqhubekile nokuhla kakhulu:
-I-Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) ime kuma-2562.12 amanqaku, ehle ngama-285.5 amanqaku ukusuka kwiveki ephelileyo, ukwehla kweveki nge-10.0%, kwaye yehle kangangeeveki ezili-13 zilandelelana. Yehle ngama-43.9% xa ithelekiswa nexesha elifanayo kunyaka ophelileyo.
-I-Delury's World Container Freight Index (WCI) yehle kangangeeveki ezingama-28 zilandelelana, kwaye uhlelo lwamva nje lwehle nge-5% ukuya kwi-US$5,378.68 nge-FEU nganye.
-I-Baltic Freight Index (FBX) Global Composite Index kwi-US$4,862/FEU, yehle nge-8% veki nganye.
-I-Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) ye-Ningbo Shipping Exchange ivale ngamanqaku ayi-1,910.9, ihle nge-11.6% ukusuka kwiveki ephelileyo.
Ushicilelo lwamva nje lwe-SCFI (9.9) luqhubekile nokubona ukwehla kwamaxabiso amakhulu okuthunyelwa kwempahla.
-Iindlela zaseMntla Melika: ukusebenza kwemarike yezothutho akuphumeleli ukuphucuka, iziseko zokubonelela kunye nemfuno zibuthathaka, nto leyo ebangele ukuba imarike iqhubeke nokuhla kwamaxabiso empahla.
-Amaxabiso e-US West ehle aya kwi-3,484/FEU ukusuka kwi-$3,959 kwiveki ephelileyo, ukwehla kweveki kwe-$475 okanye i-12.0%, apho amaxabiso e-US West efikelele kwinqanaba eliphantsi ukususela ngo-Agasti 2020.
Amanani e-US East ehle aya kwi-$7,767/FEU ukusuka kwi-$8,318 kwiveki ephelileyo, ehla nge-$551, okanye i-6.6%, veki nganye.
Izizathu
Ngexesha lobhubhane, uthungelwano lokubonelela ngempahla lwaphazamiseka kwaye ezinye izinto zanqunyulwa kwamanye amazwe, nto leyo eyabangela “ukuqokelelwa kwezinto” kumazwe amaninzi, nto leyo eyakhokelela kwiindleko zokuthumela eziphezulu ngendlela engaqhelekanga kunyaka ophelileyo.
Kulo nyaka, uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kwezoqoqosho lwehlabathi kunye nokuhla kwemfuno kwenze kwaba nzima ukugaya amasheya awayegcinwe ngaphambili kwimarike, nto leyo ebangele ukuba abathumeli bamazwe aseYurophu naseMelika banciphise okanye barhoxise ii-odolo zeempahla, kwaye "ukunqongophala kwee-odolo" kusasazeka kwihlabathi liphela.
UDing Chun, uprofesa kwiZiko lezoQoqosho zeHlabathi, iSikolo sezoQoqosho, kwiYunivesithi yaseFudan: “Ukuhla kwexabiso leemveliso kubangelwa kakhulu kukunyuka kwamaxabiso eYurophu nase-United States, okwanda ziingxabano zezopolitiko, iingxaki zamandla kunye nobhubhane, ezibangele ukuncipha okukhulu kwemfuno yokuthunyelwa kwempahla.”
UKang Shuchun, i-CEO ye-China International Shipping Network: “Ukungalingani phakathi kokunikezelwa kwempahla kunye nemfuno kukhokelele ekuncipheni kwamanani okuthunyelwa kwempahla.”
Impembelelo
Kwiinkampani zokuthumela ngenqanawa:bejamelene noxinzelelo lokuba “baxoxisane” ngamaxabiso eekhontrakthi, kwaye bathi bafumene izicelo ezivela kubanini bempahla zokunciphisa amaxabiso eekhontrakthi.
Kumashishini asekhaya:UXu Kai, igosa eliyintloko lolwazi kwiShanghai International Shipping Research Center, uxelele iGlobal Times ukuba ukholelwa ukuba amazinga okuthunyelwa kwempahla aphezulu ngokungaqhelekanga kunyaka ophelileyo ayengaqhelekanga, ngelixa ukuhla okukhawulezileyo kulo nyaka kwakungaqhelekanga nangakumbi, kwaye kufanele ukuba yindlela iinkampani zokuthumela impahla ezisabela ngayo kutshintsho lwemarike. Ukuze kugcinwe amazinga okulayisha impahla kwiinqanawa, iinkampani zokuthumela zizama ukusebenzisa amaxabiso okuthunyelwa kwempahla njengesixhobo sokunciphisa imfuno. Eyona nto iphambili yokuhla kwemfuno yokuthutha impahla kwiimarike kukunciphisa imfuno yorhwebo, kwaye icebo lokusebenzisa ukunciphisa amaxabiso alizukuzisa nayiphi na imfuno entsha, kodwa liya kukhokelela kukhuphiswano olubi kunye nokungalungelelani kwimarike yolwandle.
Ukuthunyelwa:Inani elikhulu leenqanawa ezintsha eziqaliswe ziinkampani ezinkulu zokuthutha imithwalo liye landisa umsantsa phakathi kokunikezelwa kwempahla kunye nemfuno. UKang Shuchun uthe amazinga aphezulu ngokungaqhelekanga okuthutha imithwalo kunyaka ophelileyo enze iinkampani ezininzi zokuthutha imithwalo zifumana imali eninzi, kwaye ezinye iinkampani ezinkulu zokuthutha imithwalo zifake inzuzo yazo ekwakheni iinqanawa ezintsha, ngelixa ngaphambi kobhubhane, amandla okuthutha imithwalo kwihlabathi liphela ayesele ephezulu kunomthamo. I-Wall Street Journal icaphule iBraemar, inkampani yokubonisana ngamandla kunye nokuthutha imithwalo, isithi uthotho lweenqanawa ezintsha luya kuqaliswa kwiminyaka emibini ezayo kwaye izinga lokukhula kweenqwelo-mafutha kulindeleke ukuba lidlule kwi-9% kunyaka ozayo nangowama-2024, ngelixa izinga lokukhula konyaka nonyaka lomthamo wokuthutha imithwalo yemithwalo yemithwalo liza kuba libi ngo-2023, nto leyo eya kwenza ukuba kube nzima ngakumbi ukungalingani phakathi kwamandla kunye nomthamo wehlabathi.
Isiphelo
Eyona nto iphambili kwimfuno yothutho lwemarike olucothayo kukuncipha kwemfuno yorhwebo, ukusebenzisa icebo lokunciphisa amaxabiso akuyi kuzisa mfuno intsha, kodwa kuya kukhokelela kukhuphiswano olubi kwaye kuphazamise ucwangco lwemarike yolwandle.
Kodwa iimfazwe zamaxabiso azisosisombululo esizinzileyo nangaliphi na ixesha. Imigaqo-nkqubo yokutshintsha kwamaxabiso kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo yokuthobela imithetho yemarike ayinakunceda iinkampani ukuba ziqhubeke nophuhliso lwazo kwaye zifumane indawo ehlala ihleli kwimarike; eyona ndlela iphambili yokunyamezela kwimarike kukufumana iindlela zokugcina nokuphucula amanqanaba eenkonzo kunye nokuphucula amandla azo eshishini.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Septemba-22-2022
